Champions Trophy 2025 Final: With All Bases Covered, India Aim To Tackle "Concerning Factor" vs New Zealand

It is time for the ultimate showdown as India and New Zealand lock horns in the final of the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy in Dubai on Sunday. India have been the best team in the tournament having won all their matches enroute to the finale. They have all bases covered including the best slower bowlers for the conditions. India also have the advantage of playing all their matches at the Dubai International Stadium. New Zealand, on the other hand, have been quite ruthless themselves with comprehensive wins against Pakistan and South Africa.

Both finalists boast of a formidable batting line-up but who will be the X-factor? Will the toss play a crucial factor in the outcome of the high-octane encounter? Which are the crucial match-ups? Henry or Shami – who is the better pacer with the new ball and does India have an edge with its quartet of spinners? 

We do a deep dive and look at some key talking points ahead of the blockbuster contest on Sunday.

New Zealand – India’s nemesis in ICC tournaments

New Zealand have a 9-6 head to head record against India in ICC limited-over world events and it is 3-1 in favour of the Kiwis when it comes to knockout matches (including the 2021 WTC final). However, it is India who has come out victorious in their last three ICC meetings – in the league-stage of the 2023 World Cup at Dharamsala and then in the semi-final in Mumbai and of course last Sunday in the group-stage of this tournament in Dubai.

New Zealand defeated India in the final of the second edition of the ICC Champions Trophy in Nairobi in 2000.

Chasing advantage in Dubai

The toss is expected to play a crucial part in the final in Dubai on Sunday. Although there has not been any dew in the second innings at the venue in the tournament, there is a definite advantage to the team chasing. India has won three of their four matches at the venue batting second, all with comfortable ease. The average total batting first in Dubai in the tournament is just 245. The highest score batting first is Australia’s 264 in the semi-final.

India – the more threatening spin quartet

The Indian spin quartet comprising Varun Chakravarthy, Ravindra Jadeja, Axar Patel and Kuldeep Yadav, has been the most threatening in the tournament with the best bowling average (28.28) and strike rate (35.8). They took nine wickets in their group game against New Zealand with the mystery spin of Varun Chakravarthy accounting for a match-winning spell of 5/42 in 10 overs. The leg spinner has been in lethal form with the ball in 2025 with 22 dismissals in eight white-ball matches for India at 12.86 a piece!

New Zealand’s slower bowlers are not far behind though, and the duo of Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell have been very impressive in the middle overs. While Santner has bagged seven wickets at an economy of 4.85, the off-spinner has returned with six at an economy of just 4.43. Rachin Ravindra has also been quite economical with the ball conceding just 4.6 per over while Glenn Phillips has chipped in with a couple of crucial wickets. Dubai has the best numbers for spinners in the tournament and the Indian quartet have exploited the conditions brilliantly. 

However, the fact that the New Zealand slower bowlers have also returned with impressive figures despite playing three of their four matches on placid tracks in Pakistan speaks volumes of their ability and character. The Kiwi spinners have the second-most wickets, average and strike rate amongst all teams in the competition.

Shami & Henry – key with the new ball

Matt Henry is the leading wicket-taker of the tournament with 10 dismissals in four matches at an average of 16.7 and strike rate of 18.8. Henry has picked three wickets in the powerplay in four matches in the competition at an economy of 4.63. His wicket-taking propensity stands out in his ODI career and his bowling strike rate of 28.6 is the third-best for a fast bowler in the format’s history (min.150 wickets). 

Mohammed Shami has an astonishing record in ODI cricket and his bowling strike rate of 25.7 is the best ever in the format’s history – even better than Mitchell Starc‘s! Shami has been a sensational wicket-taker in ICC ODI tournaments with a combined 63 wickets in just 22 matches at a phenomenal average of 14.3 and strike rate of 16.8 with four 4-fers and five fifers! He is the second highest wicket-taker of the 2025 Champions Trophy with eight wickets at an average of 19.87 and economy of 4.96. Shami has bagged three wickets in the powerplay at an economy of just 4.69.

A clash of two batting powerhouses

India have the most prolific batting order in the tournament. While Rohit Sharma will continue to attack in the powerplay – he has a strike rate of 107.2 in the first 10 overs in the tournament, Virat Kohli will be key in the middle-order especially in a run-chase. No batter has scored more runs than Shubman Gill in ODI cricket since 2022 while KL Rahul and Hardik Pandya have perfected the role of the finishers.

However, it is Shreyas Iyer who will be India’s X-factor with the bat in the final. Iyer has been in tremendous form since his return to the ODI unit and has scored 376 runs in seven innings (including four fifties) at an average of 53.7 and strike rate of 96.2 in 2025! Iyer is an excellent player of spin and has a scoring rate of 99 against the slower bowlers in ODI cricket.

Interestingly, a weak area for the Indian batters in the tournament has been their scoring rate against spin. They have a combined strike rate of just 80.5 against the slower bowlers – but that may also be a factor of the conditions in Dubai more so than the intent of the Indian batters.

New Zealand also boast of a formidable batting line-up and in fact the combined batting average of their top 6 is higher than the corresponding average for India in the competition. No team has hit more hundreds than New Zealand (5) with two of them being registered by the flamboyant Rachin Ravindra! The stylish left-hander will be the key in the top-order for New Zealand – he is their best player of spin with a strike rate of 112.4 against the slower bowlers. Tom Latham, Kane Williamson and Will Young have been the other centurions for New Zealand.